Friends with benefits

16.01.2015 | By Oleksandr Ivanov

Having lived through two extraordinary election campaigns (exclusive of early local elections in several cities, including Kyiv), Ukrainians fenced themselves from another populism and vanity fair for at least a year, following the letter of the law. The Article 90 of the Constitution guarantees the parliament elected at early elections immunity from the dissolution for the period of one year

The Article 87 gives the same immunity to the Cabinet, the program of which was approved by the parliament on December 11, 2014.

Of course, the unquestioned compliance with the rules of the Basic Law could be attributed to the merits of the current government with a great reserve but if the parliament and the president do not violate the aforementioned articles, Ukrainians will have more reasons for optimism. The fact is that under current conditions the parliamentary campaign is still in no way connected with the policy pursued by the victorious political forces. To see this, it suffices to compare the election programs of the winning parties, the coalition agreement, the governments Program of Actions and the plan for introduction of changes to the applicable legislation. It is clear that it would be impossible to achieve success campaigning under the slogans of reduction of compulsory secondary education, introduction of payment for higher education, raising the retirement age or reduction of the number of medical institutions. Which poses the general question of expediency of the cost of populism competition among politicians all the same they are unable to fulfill the promises they gave to voters.

On the other hand, the strength of the parliamentary coalition raises reasonable doubts. It is no secret that its creation in the implemented format, as well as the approval of government program, became possible only in terms of pressure of foreign partners. In 2015, the countrys survival will depend on timely provision of international financial assistance to Ukraine yet this aspect should act a safeguard from the devastating conflicts inside the country. Foreign donors need political predictability of their Ukrainian partners and this means that it is most likely that the current model of coalition will be preserved. This, of course, will not be an obstacle for internal scandals, harsh criticism, mutual accusations of incompetence and blackmailing the events of last December have largely set the tone for the continued existence of allies of convenience.

The Parliament itself also has a sufficient reserve for replenishment of the coalition ranks, even if part of its current creators resorts to open demarche. First of all, the potential of independent MP groups and parliamentarians was not used to the full extent. Secondly, the scandals may confine to dismissal of individual scapegoat ministers from their offices. The Chinese calendar suggests that it will be impossible to do without scapegoats next year.

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